WIG20 and FX Blog

Stockmarket and Foreign Exchange markets

WIG20, EURPLN hitting 4.20

Quick update:

Last weeks a little bit disappointing macroeconomic data (wasn't that bad)
didn't bring us too high. This week we will get more data from EU including
revised GDP.

Tuesday: CPI in Switzerland, revised Q2 GDP in EU
Thursday: ECB intrest rates, jobless claims (US), Bernanke's speech on

EURPLN spiked today to 4.20 after breaking falling trend on 1st of September

W20 futures is hanging on a rising trendline and breaking it may
suggest steeper drop:

Under- and over-performing blue chips of WIG20.

Compiled from onet

Last 5 days Last 10 days
WIG20 Index 2391.15 4.01% 0.15%
----- Over-performing companies -----
TVN 14.1 15.20% 18.99%
PGNIG 4.18 8.29% 11.17%
BOGDANKA 103.9 6.78% 8.57%
KERNEL 67.1 5.67% 6.42%
CEZ 135.5 7.11% 6.36%
GETIN 9.17 6.38% 6.01%
KGHM 169.9 6.86% 3.28%

Polish GDP 4.3% revised from 4.2%.

Released data in Poland showed Q2 GDP = 4.3%, revised from 4.2%; Prior 4.4%. Data didn't have much impact on trading which we can see on chart shown below. Much more impact on trading had negative consumer confidence data released in U.S. at 10am EDT. 44.5 (prior 59.5, consensus=52.5). However chart shows also that there is still an appetite for buying.


WIG20 closed at 2,391.15pts, 38.74, 1,65%

Some stability. No boosting.

GDP in U.S. slowed to 1.0%. UK GDP revised at 0.7% Y/Y.

Bernanke didn't signal more stimulus; suggested that FED
can take some actions in September. This had its impact
on stockmarket; thankfully only temporary as for today; stock rebounded quickly.

Bernanke's speech in red.

It may suggest that we have slow down, but levels are stable.
We may expect fall of durable goods in next months and
hopefully increase of retail sales.

GDP at 8:30 EDT, Bernanke's speech at 10:00 EDT.

After number of mixed data (positive durable goods, negative jobless
claims and few others) we are waiting today for GDP data and Bernanke's speech.
In the meantime we will also get data on corporate profits, which might be
expected to be good.

Bernanke .. and we can see printing dollars again in an article:

Lack of Engineers Threatens German Automakers


It is extremely strange that eastern Europe was not mentioned at all here...

Home sales below expectations but a happy ending

New home sales were today below expectations (298k; prev: 312k; consensus: 302-330k),
Started speculations on Fed Stimulus pushed high DJ & S&P today:

At 4:18pm EDT:
DOW 11,176.80 +322.11 2.97%
S&P 500 1,162.35 +38.53 3.43%

Europe was pretty weak today (after closing):
STOXX 50 2,199.98 +16.59 0.76%
FTSE 100 5,129.42 +34.12 0.67%
DAX 5,532.38 +58.60 1.07%

And WIG20 absolutely out of scale ending at:
WIG20 2299.06 -5,53 -0,24%.

This may mean that we can expect Europe to open higher tomorrow and
rally tomorrow on WIG20 as a result of today's backlog in climbing.

ICSC Goldman Store Sales for 2011

Our W/W -1.0% does not look that bad...

Compiled from Bloomberg; Horizontal: Month.

1/4/2011 7:45:00 AM For wk1/1, 2011 0.40 3.60
1/11/2011 7:45:00 AM For wk1/8, 2011 -3.20 3.50
1/19/2011 7:45:00 AM For wk1/15, 2011 -0.10 1.40
1/25/2011 7:45:00 AM For wk1/22, 2011 -1.20 2.80
2/1/2011 7:45:00 AM For wk1/29, 2011 -1.00 1.60
2/8/2011 7:45:00 AM For wk2/5, 2011 2.20 2.50
2/15/2011 7:45:00 AM For wk2/12, 2011 -1.40 2.70

WIG20 lack of confidence.

Appetite for gains in first half; lack of confidence after hitting 2305 in second half.

WIG20: Bounced from 2300pts.

We didn't stay too long above 2300pts.

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